Talk Nation Radio for December 10, 2008

Journalist Graham Usher with breaking news and analysis from Islamabad Pakistan

Produced by Dori Smith

TRT: 29:40
Download at Pacifica's Audioport or at Radio4all.net and Archive.org (various formats)

Journalist Graham Usher joins us from Islamabad Pakistan to discuss the climate there in the wake of the deaths of 171 people, murdered at various locations in Mumbai, India's financial and tourist district in late November. We talk about his article in Al-Ahram, December 9-12 2008 titled 'Cold War'. In it he raises the question, 'Will American mediation ease or deepen the crisis in Pakistan-India relations caused by the killings in Mumbai?

Graham Usher is author of a report in Middle East Report, MERIP.ORG, 'Pakistan Amidst the Storms'.

Excerpt from this week's show:

"The last thing the Americans want is any tension on the eastern border between Pakistan and India, and for one very simple reason which the Pakistani army has already signaled. That is that if we do get to a level of hostilities between Pakistan and India, Pakistan will move its soldiers from the western border with Afghanistan to the eastern border with India. That would be catastrophic for US troops in Afghanistan and for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Whatever criticism the Americans have of the Pakistani counter insurgency policies on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, they still remain absolutely indispensable to the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

I'll give you just one statistic, 75% of all NATO supplies, some 300 trucks every day in terms of ammunition, equipment, materiel enters Afghanistan through Pakistan. If the Pakistani army lifted protection on that those routes could not happen and the troops would be very quickly bereft of equipment and essential supplies. So the importance of the Pakistani army continuing it's presence on the western border, and at the moment it has something like 100,000 troops there, is absolutely essential to America's counter insurgency policy in Afghanistan. So the absolute priority of Condoleezza Rice and of any American president is to prevent hostilities between India and Pakistan in order to make sure that Pakistani soldiers are continuing fighting against the Taliban on the western border.

So I think there will be no attempt by America certainly for the eastern border to be hot up, for the Pakistan army it will very much depend on what India does. Now if India were to engage in a kind of an American like unilateral strike on say a Lashkar-e-Taiba camp on the eastern border or in Pakistan-Kashmir, then almost certainly the army would mobilize from the western border to the eastern border. That I think is one of the reasons why they have gone after Lashkar-e-Taiba camps in Pakistan-Kashmir now. It is almost like a preemptive move to prevent India engaging in any military strike.

I think in terms of American policy, they will do everything they possibly can to prevent any hostility between India and Pakistan but they will also pressurize Pakistan to act against Lashkar-e-Taiba on the basis of evidence that India presents that Lashkar-e-Taiba was involved in some way in the attacks in Mumbai."

Topics:

1.) US involvement in mediation between Pakistani and Indian officials in the wake of the Mumbai killings.

2.) The Indian authorities had arrested one man at the scene of the Mumbai killings in late November. Pakistan has turned over others involved with Lashkar-e-Taiba. We talk about the intelligence gained from interrogations and other means such as wiretaps and so called, 'chatter'.

3.) The Indian, US, and Pakistani governments all appear convinced that the killers did come from Pakistan and are convinced by intelligence tying them to Lashkar-e-Taiba. We discuss the history of this group with the Pakistani military and what it wants for Kashmir.

4.) In his mid December story in Al Ahram Graham Usher quotes retired Pakistani General, Asad Durrani, former head of Pakistan's ISI. who denies that the Pakistan army sees India as the primary threat these days.

5.) We hear about the CIA, which is supporting the bombing of sites in Pakistan. This is a crucial part of the problem according to Graham Usher, who explains that anti-US sentiments are running high in Pakistan. US involvement in mediating the crisis between India and Pakistan could have mixed results due to this climate of anger about the drone and missile attacks by USA forces. Will this make Pakistani leaders appear strong or weak?

6.) President-Elect Barack Obama has said two things Graham Usher sites as positive. First, he wants to solve the dispute over Kashmir to promote peace between India and Pakistan. Second, he sees a regional solution as best. According to Usher that would ideally mean negotiations with the Taliban, and focusing on all of the countries with something at stake in the region including Iran, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India.

Excerpt from this week's show:
"The last thing the Americans want is any tension on the eastern border between Pakistan and India, and for one very simple reason which the Pakistani army has already signaled. That is that if we do get to a level of hostilities between Pakistan and India, Pakistan will move its soldiers from the western border with Afghanistan to the eastern border with India. That would be catastrophic for US troops in Afghanistan and for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Whatever criticism the Americans have of the Pakistani counter insurgency policies on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, they still remain absolutely indispensable to the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

I'll give you just one statistic, 75% of all NATO supplies, some 300 trucks every day in terms of ammunition, equipment, materiel enters Afghanistan through Pakistan. If the Pakistani army lifted protection on that those routes could not happen and the troops would be very quickly bereft of equipment and essential supplies. So the importance of the Pakistani army continuing it's presence on the western border, and at the moment it has something like 100,000 troops there, is absolutely essential to America's counter insurgency policy in Afghanistan. So the absolute priority of Condoleezza Rice and of any American president is to prevent hostilities between India and Pakistan in order to make sure that Pakistani soldiers are continuing fighting against the Taliban on the western border.

So I think there will be no attempt by America certainly for the eastern border to be hot up, for the Pakistan army it will very much depend on what India does. Now if India were to engage in a kind of an American like unilateral strike on say a Lashkar-e-Taiba camp on the eastern border or in Pakistan-Kashmir, then almost certainly the army would mobilize from the western border to the eastern border. That I think is one of the reasons why they have gone after Lashkar-e-Taiba camps in Pakistan-Kashmir now. It is almost like a preemptive move to prevent India engaging in any military strike.

I think in terms of American policy, they will do everything they possibly can to prevent any hostility between India and Pakistan but they will also pressurize Pakistan to act against Lashkar-e-Taiba on the basis of evidence that India presents that Lashkar-e-Taiba was involved in some way in the attacks in Mumbai."

New Developments: (source NPR Morning Edition 12 11 08) The UN Security Council is considering designation for charity wing of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, as 'terrorist organization'.


Al-Ahram Weekly stories by Graham Usher

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2008/925/in1.htm
International Among the dead of Mumbai

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2008/925/fr2.htm
Will American mediation ease or deepen the crisis in Pakistan-India relations caused by the killings in Mumbai asks Graham Usher in Islamabad

The Big Chill, There is a new cold war in South East Asia -- between the US and Pakistan, writes Graham Usher in Peshawar

See also http://www.talknationradio.org


This audio is part of the collection: Community Audio
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Artist/Composer: Dori Smith
Keywords: Lashkar-e-Taiba; arrests; charity wing Jamaat-ud-Dawa; Graham Usher; journalist; Islamabad; Pakistan; Mumbai killings; November 2008; reporting December 11 2008

Creative Commons license: Public Domain

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